Bad officials are elected by good citizens who don’t vote.
– George Jean Nathan, American drama critic and magazine editor
The trend towards holding state elections before GE15 continues. First Sabah followed by Sarawak then Malacca, and now Johor.
The state election in Malaya has usually been synchronised with the general elections. However, due to the current dynamics of Malayan politics after GE14, we now see the emerging trend of two Malayan states so far having their election for their state legislative assembly before GE15.
The Johor state assembly, which has 56 seats, was dissolved by Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar on Jan 22. The 2022 Johor state election, its 15th, will take place on March 12.
Before the dissolution, Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Hasni Mohammad justified it by saying the state government needed a fresh mandate as it had a slim majority, adding that it was necessary to have stability for investors and businesses and expand their business operations.
There are multi-cornered fights in all the 56 seats and 239 candidates with 202 male candidates and 37 female candidates, with the oldest being 71 years old and the youngest 26.
There are some similarities with the Sarawak PRU12 elections regarding the multitudes of parties and multi-cornered fights. In Sarawak, this worked out in favour of GPS, and likewise, there is a high possibility in Johor it will work out in favour of BN.
The mood within BN is good after the recent 15th Malacca state election on Nov 20 2021. This, too, was called after a political crisis. Here BN won a landslide victory in the state election, winning 21 seats and gaining a two-thirds majority in the legislature.
So when will GE15 be held? There has been much speculation, and some estimated time frames have come and gone. Another window opening up would be in July when the memorandum of understanding not to trigger a vote of no confidence between political parties expires.
It is speculated that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob does not favour early GE15 polls. He has only been in office since Aug 21 2021, a mere few months.
I am sure he does not want to be the shortest-serving prime minister of Malaysia and would prefer to stretch it out for the entire term.
This would be at odds with other leaders in BN, specifically UNMO, whose members are feeling buoyant about their chances of success if GE15 was held soon.
However, if GE15 was held soon, UNMO leaders such as Najib would claim the victory due to his ongoing and rising popularity. He is credited with leading the victory in Malacca and is taking a leading and prominent role in Johor now.
A win in Johor and a subsequent win in a quick GE15 would most likely seal the fate of the Ismail Sabri.
Therefore, the current prime minister will probably stretch out the journey towards GE15. There is a possibility he would trigger other state elections in between, giving him more time to consolidate his position.
The possibility of Najib being back at the helm is high. Coming back from a political graveyard is not unheard of here and nowadays could even be considered the new normal.
During the ongoing political campaigns, if the crowds Najib is attracting are anything to go by he is well on his way back. The ‘Bossku’ and ‘Malu apa Bossku’ chats are ringing across the state.
The political upheavals since GE14 have grown tiresome for most. Combined with the negative economic impact of the pandemic and lack of focus on economic recovery and social distress, many people, for the moment, are looking forward to some element of stability, albeit with all its imperfections.
Whatever the overall perceptions are of BN, based on the outcome in Malacca, many feel they are the only political party that can provide some element of political stability in Malaysia.
It is most likely these sentiments will persist in the Johor election, and if so, BN is well on its way to a comeback in GE15.
Another reason why the Johor polls are attracting additional attention is that it will be the first one in which the Undi18 and the Automatic Voter Registration are being implemented. It is estimated that about 2.59 million voters can cast their ballot in this state election.
Whatever the outcome of any election in Malaya, it is essential to realise that we need to continually maintain our stability in Sarawak for the good of its people.
Therefore taking into account the current stability provided by the GPS government led by Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg ought to be maintained in GE15.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
